On June 1, 2026, NCDEX launched RAINMUMBAI — a SEBI-approved, cash-settled futures contract tracking Mumbai's monsoon rainfall deviation from its 30-year average. Here is everything you need to understand what it is, how it works, and who should use it.
Contract Specifications
Product name
RAINMUMBAI
Exchange
NCDEX
Regulator
SEBI
Launch date
June 1, 2026
Underlying index
CDR (Cumulative Deviation Rainfall)
Geographic ref.
Mumbai (official IMD stations)
LPA baseline
2,206.7 mm (30-year average)
Monsoon window
June 1 – September 30
Settlement type
Cash-settled (no physical delivery)
Settlement source
IMD official rainfall data
Settlement date
September 30
Data source
IMD (India Meteorological Department)
Verify current lot size, margin, and tick size with your NCDEX broker. Specifications may be updated by NCDEX post-launch.
Practice trading weather markets before NCDEX
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RAINMUMBAI is a cash-settled futures contract listed on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) and approved by SEBI. It went live on June 1, 2026 — making it India's first exchange-traded weather derivative.
The contract has one job: track whether Mumbai's June–September monsoon rainfall finishes above or below its 30-year Long Period Average (LPA) of 2,206.7 mm. The gap between actual rainfall and that LPA is called the Cumulative Deviation Rainfall (CDR), and it is the number that determines who makes money and who loses it at settlement on September 30.
This is not a climate prediction. It is not a bet on whether India will have a "good" monsoon. It is a standardised financial instrument that lets two counterparties with opposing weather risk transfer that risk to each other through a SEBI-regulated exchange, with automatic settlement using official government data.
CDR = Actual cumulative monsoon rainfall (Mumbai, June 1 – September 30) − 2,206.7 mm
That is the entire formula. IMD publishes daily cumulative rainfall data for Mumbai throughout the monsoon season, so you can compute today's CDR at any point.
Example: By July 31, Mumbai has received 950 mm. The LPA contribution through July 31 is approximately 900 mm (a pro-rated estimate). CDR at July 31 ≈ +50 mm — marginally above average, early positive tracking.
By September 30, the season closes. If total rainfall was 2,450 mm, final CDR = +243.3 mm. If total rainfall was 2,050 mm, final CDR = −156.7 mm.
The contract pays out based on this final CDR figure. A trader who was long (bought) the contract profits when CDR is positive; short sellers profit when CDR is negative. The exact contract specifications — tick size, lot value per mm of CDR, initial margin — are set by NCDEX and should be confirmed with your broker before trading.
NCDEX designed RAINMUMBAI for a specific set of economic actors who have real, un-hedged weather exposure:
Farmers and agribusinesses — Maharashtra's kharif season directly tracks the monsoon. A below-average monsoon means lower yields, higher irrigation costs, and reduced revenue. Selling RAINMUMBAI (going short CDR) offsets this: if rainfall is below average, the short position pays out, partially compensating for agricultural losses.
Construction companies — Mumbai's construction sector loses 40–60 working days per monsoon season on average. An above-average monsoon means more rain, more delays, more cost overruns. Buying RAINMUMBAI (going long CDR) hedges this: if rainfall is above average, the long position pays.
Power utilities — Hydro generation in Maharashtra depends on reservoir levels, which depend on monsoon intensity. Natural gas peakers run more in dry years. The exposure varies by utility — some benefit from heavy rain (hydro), others from drought (thermal). RAINMUMBAI lets both sides hedge.
Logistics and transport companies — Road freight, perishables distribution, and port operations all have monsoon sensitivity. The specific direction of exposure determines whether to go long or short.
Banks with agricultural loan books — Loan default risk rises in drought years. A short CDR position hedges the credit risk embedded in agricultural loan portfolios.
Retail traders and speculators can also participate — SEBI has not restricted the contract to hedgers. This is intentional: speculators provide the liquidity that makes hedging possible.
Settlement is the cleanest part of RAINMUMBAI. There is no claim, no adjuster, no dispute. On September 30, IMD publishes the official cumulative rainfall figure for the monsoon season. NCDEX computes the final CDR, and all open positions settle automatically in cash at that price.
The IMD data comes from official rainfall gauging stations across Mumbai. This is the same data IMD has been publishing for 150+ years, and the same data used in the NCDEX–IMD MoU that underpins the product. It cannot be disputed or manipulated.
For traders, this means: there is no "basis" issue with settlement (the settlement index is the index you traded). The only basis risk is between Mumbai's rainfall and your actual economic exposure — if your farm is in Nashik, Mumbai rainfall is a proxy, not a perfect hedge.
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Browse all markets →RAINMUMBAI and crop/weather insurance solve the same underlying problem — weather risk — but using completely different mechanisms. Understanding the differences helps you decide which is appropriate for your situation.
For most agricultural producers, RAINMUMBAI is a complement to — not a replacement for — farm-level insurance like PMFBY. The exchange contract provides liquidity and price discovery; insurance provides localised, claim-based protection.
What comes after RAINMUMBAI
NCDEX has described RAINMUMBAI as the first product in a broader expansion of weather derivatives in India. Temperature-based contracts and district-level rainfall derivatives for key agricultural regions are the stated next phase — backed by the NCDEX–IMD MoU covering real-time data access across India. Learning to trade CDR-based contracts now is direct preparation for those products as they launch.
RAINMUMBAI is the product name given by NCDEX (National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange) to India's first exchange-traded weather derivatives contract. The name combines 'RAIN' (the underlying weather event) and 'MUMBAI' (the geographic reference point). It tracks the Cumulative Deviation Rainfall (CDR) of Mumbai's monsoon season against a 30-year Long Period Average of 2,206.7 mm.
Traditional crop insurance (like PMFBY) is farm-specific, has a claim-based settlement process, and is regulated by IRDAI. RAINMUMBAI is an exchange-traded futures contract regulated by SEBI, trades continuously during market hours, settles automatically using IMD rainfall data, and does not require a claim. It is available to any entity with a commodity derivatives account — not just farmers. The trade-off is basis risk: RAINMUMBAI tracks Mumbai's rainfall, which may differ from rainfall at a specific farm.
RAINMUMBAI settles at the end of the Indian monsoon season, on September 30. Settlement is fully automatic and cash-based — no physical delivery, no claim required. The settlement price is calculated using the final Cumulative Deviation Rainfall (CDR) figure published by IMD from their official Mumbai rainfall gauging stations.
CDR stands for Cumulative Deviation Rainfall. It is calculated as: CDR = (Actual cumulative monsoon rainfall in Mumbai from June 1) minus (the 30-year Long Period Average of 2,206.7 mm). A positive CDR means above-average monsoon; a negative CDR means below-average. For example, if Mumbai receives 2,450 mm by September 30, CDR = +243.3 mm. IMD publishes cumulative rainfall data daily throughout the monsoon season, allowing traders to track CDR progress in real time.
Any entity with a SEBI-registered commodity derivatives trading account at a NCDEX-registered broker is eligible. This includes individual retail investors, farmers, agribusinesses, construction companies, power utilities, logistics companies, and banks. You do not need to be a farmer or have agricultural exposure to trade RAINMUMBAI — it is open to all commodity market participants.
Yes. NCDEX has indicated that RAINMUMBAI is the first product in a planned expansion. Rainfall contracts for agricultural districts (Vidarbha, Marathwada, the Indo-Gangetic plain) and temperature-based indices are described as the logical next phase. The NCDEX–IMD MoU signed in June 2025 covers data access across India, which provides the infrastructure for a much broader rollout beyond Mumbai.
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